Copper Now Generates More Earnings for BHP Than Iron Ore

Copper now generates more earnings for BHP than iron ore. The world's largest miner just confirmed what the smart money has been positioning for.

That shift happened in the first half of FY26. And incoming CEO Brandon Craig, presenting at the Bank of America Global Metals, Mining and Steel Conference in Miami, made clear it is not a temporary blip.

BHP plans to grow attributable copper production to approximately 2 million tonnes per annum by 2035. That is 3 to 4 per cent compound annual copper-equivalent growth, underpinned by Escondida, Copper South Australia, the Vicuna JV in Argentina, and Resolution Copper in Arizona, which recently cleared a major land exchange milestone.

Craig's framing was deliberate: "more velocity, more ambition, stronger discipline."

Not a pivot to reckless expansion. A disciplined acceleration into the commodity that underpins electrification, grid modernisation, and AI infrastructure buildout.

Two things stood out.

First, Craig signalled openness to "value-accretive" bolt-on acquisitions and partnerships, but explicitly distanced from the transformative deal posture that defined the Anglo American bid. In the current geopolitical environment, organic pipeline and operational excellence are the preferred growth levers.

Second, the geopolitical context was front and centre. Trade flows are shifting. Resource security is no longer a theoretical concern. In Craig's words: "asset quality, operating discipline and the ability to adapt matter more than ever."

For anyone screening copper exposure across the sector, the implication is straightforward: BHP is not waiting for the market to reprice copper's structural role. It is building into it, at scale, right now.

The question for producers is whether they can attract the capital, the talent, and the operational credibility to compete for that same pipeline. Less searching. More strategising.™