US$54bn. Every approval for Anglo Teck is in except China's.
Reuters reports that SAMR has asked Anglo American to commit to a steady flow of copper concentrate into China, including volumes sold through traders. Three unnamed sources. Anglo says it is making good progress.
The combined group would hold about 5% of global copper supply, against competition thresholds of 10 to 15%. This is a feed question.
The 2026 benchmark treatment charge settled at US$0 a tonne, from US$21.25 in 2025. Spot charges are below zero, so smelters are paying for concentrate. China's refined copper output is forecast to grow 3% to 3.4% this year, against 10.4% in 2025, the slowest since at least 2000.
The last time Beijing made a copper deal pay, Glencore/Xstrata in 2013, the price was a mine and a promise. Glencore sold Las Bambas and offered Chinese customers about 900,000 tonnes of concentrate a year for eight years, priced off the annual benchmark.
The benchmark sits at zero, and Antofagasta, whose annual deal with Chinese smelters sets it, has moved some term sales to spot-indexed pricing with a floor. Any commitment Anglo gives has to settle which price it references.
Executives at Glencore, Anglo American and Rio Tinto have said antitrust and national-interest reviews now weigh more in copper deals. Merger control has become supply policy. Price the remedy before signing, not after.
Watch the tonnes a year, not the 5%.
Sizing a commitment starts with concentrate tonnes mine by mine across both groups. Pulse tracks that production data across filings.
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